Nottinghamshire have already secured a home quarter final and will seal top spot in the group with victory, or a point, at home to Leicestershire tonight.
Northamptonshire in second have also qualified, but need to beat Yorkshire, the only side who can catch them, to guarantee the second home tie. The Steelbacks are two points ahead of the Vikings, with a net run-rate advantage, so Yorkshire would have to win and overturn a NRR deficit of 0.187 to claim second.
Yorkshire meanwhile still need a win, or a point, to guarantee their qualification. If they lose, and Birmingham win at Lancashire, the Bears will take third, whilst the final fourth spot will be decided on NRR, between Yorkshire and the winner of the Durham v Derbyshire match.
Birmingham currently occupy the fourth qualification place, but it is a simple win or bust equation for the Bears, who are away to Lancashire tonight. Win and they will be guaranteed third or fourth, depending on Yorkshire’s result; whilst defeat will see them miss out to the winner of Durham v Derbyshire. Even a tie or no result at Chester-le-Street would see Derbyshire progress on NRR.
Durham and Derbyshire go into their fixture each on 12 points, with only the winner retaining a chance of qualification, but only if other results go their way: it won’t be enough if both Birmingham and Yorkshire win. A Birmingham defeat would see the winner progress, whilst a Birmingham win and Yorkshire defeat would mean the final spot would come down to NRR between the winner and Yorkshire, as Derbyshire currently have a slight edge on Durham, but narrowly behind Yorkshire.
Lancashire sit eighth in the group on 11 points but, mathematically, can still qualify. Beating Birmingham would see them go above the Bears on NRR, although they would require a tie or no result between Durham and Derbyshire, as well as lifting their NRR above Derbyshire’s.
Thursday’s defeat for Middlesex by Essex, coupled with Glamorgan’s no result at Sussex, confirmed that both Gloucestershire and Glamorgan will have home ties in the quarter finals, whilst Middlesex have also secured a last eight place but now cannot catch the top two as they travel to Gloucestershire.
The no result at Hove also ended Sussex’s quarter final hopes, and was particularly harsh on the Sharks, who were well ahead on D/L when rain forced the game to be abandoned five balls short of the five overs required for a result.
The final quarter final spot will be between Essex, Surrey and Kent, with Essex in pole position following their win at Lord’s. They sit two points above Surrey and Kent, who play each other at The Oval.
Essex face Glamorgan at home knowing a win or a point will guarantee their qualification, whilst Glamorgan can top the group if they win and Gloucestershire are beaten by Middlesex.
An Essex defeat would open the door for the winners of the Surrey v Kent game to join them on 14 points, with NRR the decider, Essex currently have the edge with a NRR of 0.174. Surrey are close behind with 0.025, Kent however would need a more sizable swing with their NRR currently -0.548.